You may haven noticed the depressing news in the Daily News Record today -- on the front page -- home sales dropped 27% in July! 

But wait -- those are national numbers, and may not have much to do with what's going on in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. 

The chart to the right is from the DNR, showing the 27% decline in July.  The chart below shows essentially the same data for Harrisonburg and Rockingham County.  The only difference is that the national figures only include existing home sales (it excludes new homes) and the local numbers are both new and existing homes.

Here is the local data:



Despite a 27% decline nationally, local home sales only showed a 5% annualized decline!

It's always good to get a different take on the data and situation in our market.  Feel free to share your own comments on the state of our market in the comment section below.



[From the Daily News Record, July 16, 2010]

Housing Market Enjoys Boomlet
But Area's Sales Surge Likely To Be Short-Lived

By Doug Manners

HARRISONBURG  - Buoyed by the expected expiration of federal tax credits, home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County climbed in June to the highest monthly total in nearly three years. However, sales are likely to drop during the second half of the year, due in part to the expiration of the tax credit program.

According to a report released by Scott Rogers, associate broker at Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors, 116 homes were sold last month, the most since August 2007, when 138 homes sold. It also marks a 35 percent increase over sales from June 2009.

To be eligible for the credits - up to $8,000 for first-time homebuyers and $6,500 for existing homeowners - buyers originally had until June 30 to close sales, but Congress extended the deadline to Sept. 30. Buyers still must have entered into a binding contract by April 30 to qualify.

‘Buffer' Needed

Local sales in 2010 are 16 percent higher than those from the first six months of last year, and Rogers said he believes that the area will reverse a four-year downturn in annual home sales.

"I think the 16 percent is enough of a buffer" to beat last year's numbers, Rogers said.

That buffer is key because sales are now expected to fall, with most tax-credit seekers having already made their home purchases (Congress didn't approve the extension until late June).

Furthermore, Rogers wrote in his report, "for most of the past four years, there is a steady decline in sales between June and December, so we will likewise probably see a decline month after month."

Contracts Plummet

In April, 121 properties went under contract, the most since March 2007. After the April 30 deadline expired, that number dropped to 84 in May and plummeted to 54 in June.

"This June's buyer commitment rate is notably lower than any of the past three Junes," Rogers wrote, "which is not a good indicator for July and August sales figures."

Rogers said it's too soon to say conclusively whether the tax credits provided a real boost to the housing market or simply shifted sales toward the first half of the year.

"Perhaps it's a wash other than the timing," Rogers said, "except that timing might have helped create some momentum in getting people feeling more positive and hopeful about the economy."

Values Continue To Drop

Despite the increased market activity, home values continue to decline, according to Rogers' report. The average median sales price is $186,450, down 8 percent from a year earlier. Rogers said median prices are not likely to start increasing until the year-over-year sales pace rises.

The average time a home stays on the market is holding steady at about six months.

Contact Doug Manners at 574-6293 or dmanners@dnronline.com

Click here for the full July 2010 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report.

We're not out of the woods yet, but several indicators are quite positive in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County housing market. 



As can be seen above, June 2010 home sales soared up to 116 transactions -- the highest number of monthly sales we have seen in almost three years.  Many of these home sales were likely a result of the home buyer tax credit deadline, so we may see a decline in July home sales.



Above, you will note that long term indicators continue to trend very positively.  This graph shows a rolling 12-month sum of home sales to remove the seasonal variation in sales.  After several years of a declining market (in number of home sales), we have now seen a stabilization and increase for over six months.



Despite good signs as far as closed home sales go, the number of buyers committing to buy during June 2010 (contracts signed) declined, both compared to the last several months, as well as compared to the past three months of June (2007, 2008, 2009).  This will likely result in lower levels of home sales in July and August.



In addition to home sales, inventory levels also soared in June 2010 -- cresting above 1,000 homes for sale for the first time in recent past (and maybe the first time ever).  We should see a decline in inventory over the next six months based on historical seasonal trends.

Learn even more about our local housing market: click here for the full July 2010 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report.



Do you have questions about this report, or about the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market?  Or about your house?  Or about a house you might buy?  Be in touch . . .

Scott Rogers  |  540-578-0102  |  scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com

If you haven't heard the big news, our real estate company (Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors) has merged with Century 21 Real Estate Unlimited.  This transition is very exciting for our company, our agents, but most of all to all of the clients of our now one brokerage company.  With our combined strength, we will be able to provide even better services to our clients.

The combined company will operate as Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors, with approximately 95 licensees, and is the largest residential real estate company in the central Shenandoah Valley -- both in sales volume and sales transactions.


The full press release follows....

Real Estate Firm Merger Offers New Opportunities In Today's Market
June 30, 2010

Two Local Firms Merge To Provide Clients & Associates State-Of-The-Art Real Estate Services

For the last two years, Joe Funkhouser, President of Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors, has carefully analyzed the real estate industry in the new economy and came to one conclusion: today's real estate firm must be large enough to provide more tools and services to clients and associates.  Joe looked for opportunities to make this happen and began conversations with Philip Constable, broker and owner of Century 21 Real Estate Unlimited.  "I have always had great respect for Philip and the team of associates he built at Century 21," said Funkhouser.

After being approached by Joe,  Philip Constable did his own research to see what local firms would be the best fit if he decided to merge his company.  "I talked with several Brokers and realized the firm which had the closest structure and business philosophy of ours was Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors," said Constable.

This business philosophy is founded on Integrity, Honesty, Professionalism and Knowledge. "Our company is founded on principles that we expect each associate to carry forward in our service to clients and customers," said Joe Funkhouser.  "I believe our business philosophy and the emphasis we put on equipping our associates with proven tools, education and management support is our advantage in today's market".

The thought of a merger between the two firms began last year and was focused on how to provide better service to associates and clients, "Joe and I met many times over the last year to formulate a merger that would bring our two firms together under one roof and create not only the largest real estate firm in the region but also the most professionally trained associates and the firm with the best cutting edge technology in the industry," said Philip Constable who will now serve as Associate Broker and a Sales Manager of Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors.

Some of the many tools available to associates include websites, virtual tours, social media, graphic design assistance, marketing consultants and a strong management team of industry leaders.  "Our company is here to support our associates.  Whether it is a question about building a successful marketing plan or the effects of new laws on our business,we are here to make our associates successful in helping clients," said Joe Funkhouser, who has served as Chairman of the Virginia Real Estate Board and Vice President of the National Association of REALTORS®.

Over the past 12 months, the combined companies have represented clients in the sale of 662 properties totaling $127,845,895 in sales volume.   The firm will now have 95 full service licensees, making it the largest residential real estate firm in the region.  "The size of our firm is a great advantage to our associates and our clients.  When someone chooses to work with our real estate firm they are not hiring just one of our associates, they are working with a team of real estate professionals dedicated to their real estate needs," said Funkhouser.

Along with its sister company, Coldwell Banker Commercial Funkhouser Realtors, Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors provides services in Residential and Commercial Brokerage, Residential and Commercial Property Management, Farms and Land Brokerage and  Property Appraisal.  The company was founded in 1975 by Joe Funkhouser and currently has locations in Harrisonburg and Woodstock offering services in Augusta, Rockingham, Page & Shenandoah counties.

For more information about Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors, visit www.cbfunkhouser.com or call (540) 434-2400.
 

I had heard from several of my clients this week that interest rates were VERY low --- but I didn't know they were the lowest EVER!  Current rates are the lowest on record, according to BankRate.com and others. 

Of note, I two of my clients locked in this week at 4.375% and 4.5% --- wow!

How do these incredibly low interest rates affect you?

• If you have an interest rate above 5.5%, it might be worthwhile considering a refinance.
• If you are buying anytime in the next six months, now may be a considerably more favorable time to buy rather than later.

Let's examine how an increase in rates (as compared to a current 4.5% rate) would affect a monthly payment. 



Put another way --- if you were buying a new townhome this week, could it be helpful to have an extra $1,600 in your pocket?  Or an extra $2,700 in your pocket?  Buying now, with low rates, can save you that much (annually) as compared to your costs if rates start to increase.

As reported in detail at hburgnews, a new student housing complex is one step closer to being built on South Main Street.  The 60 acre tract is proposed to feature 466 apartments for college students --- but wait, certainly the developer would first be examining the state of the current student housing market --- right??

Let's take a quick look at what has happened over the past several years in Harrisonburg's student housing market:

In Fall 2007, there was a relatively even balance between JMU students living off campus, and housing available for said students.  There were 11,654 students, and approximately the same number of "beds" (bedrooms in apartments, etc) available for those students.

Between Fall 2007 and Fall 2009 the the number of off campus students increased by 382 students.  But.... there were 3,313 new beds for these students!  This huge increase in housing included new complexes (Charleston Townes, North 38, Campus View Condos, 865 East, Copper Beach, Urban Exchange) and additions to current complexes (Sunchase, new JMU residence hall).  This left an off campus vacancy of roughly 20% --- with 12,036 off campus students compared to 14,967 off campus beds for students. 

While growth is still occurring at JMU, it is quite slow because of state budget cuts for higher education.  Thus, the vacancy rate for Fall 2010 will likely only decline to 18.5%, and per my projections, by the time we get to Fall 2013, there will still be an off campus vacancy rate of 15% --- with 13,090 off campus students compared to 15,387 off campus beds for students.

But it seems that a company out of Glen Allen, VA is ready to jump into this exciting student housing market, add help pump that vacancy rate up even higher.  This new community will bring 466 apartments, described as 1, 2 and 4 bedroom apartments, laid out per the site plan below.



Let's assume 1/3 of the apartments are 1 bedroom, 1/3 are 2 bedrooms, and 1/3 have 4 bedrooms.  This equates to roughly 1,087 new beds for students.  They'd like to have them finished for Fall 2011, which means we'll have 12,588 off campus students available to fill 16,286 off campus beds, shooting us up to 23% off campus vacancy.

But the best part yet --- where will this student housing be located?  Next to JMU campus?  In the midst of other student housing? No and No.  This complex is quite a distance from JMU.



Again, read more at hburgnews, as there are a few detailed comments on that site that explain some of the history of the property.

SUMMARY:  Student housing vacancy in Harrisonburg currently hovers around 20%.  A developer is planning to build, likely increasing the vacancy rate to 23%.  If I were the developer, I would not develop it as a student housing complex in this community at this time.

What are your thoughts?  Questions?

Earlier this week I posted my monthly market report for Harrisonburg and Rockingham County and I pointed out that there were several indicators that suggested we might be seeing an end to the local real estate downturn.  Several of you were quite skeptical -- attributing any short-term positive indicators to the tax credit.  A few clarifications before I get to some statistics:

1. The number of local home sales has declined quite significantly for the past five years.  Prices have declined relatively slowly during that same time period.  From my perspective, a local housing market recovery will take place when we first start to see more home sales than in the past, and after that we'll see stabilizing and then increasing prices.
   
2. I am NOT sure that we really are seeing a definite and lasting change towards the better in our local housing market.  BUT....several key indicators in my market report indicate that we might be.
3. It's really o.k. if you are skeptical --- in fact, it's what keeps me on my toes!
   

The main point of contention that I have heard relative to my report is that though there were a LOT of contracts written in March and April, that this was likely almost entirely because of the April 30th deadline to sign a contract in order to receive the $6,500 or $8,000 tax credit.  So.....if the skeptics are correct, we should see a significant drop in contracts being signed in May, right??

First let's look at signed contracts per month:

• March 2010 = 95 contracts
• April 2010 = 121 contracts
• May 1 - 13, 2010 = 46 contracts
  Extrapolating, that will likely be 106 contracts for the month!

Next, let's compare this May to last May:

• May 1 - 13, 2009 = 29 contracts
• May 1 - 13, 2010 = 46 contracts

Finally, remember that my tentative optimism is not just based on March and April 2010. 



Each data point in the graph above shows the number of sales in a twelve month period.  It often takes months for a trend to appear using this metric, but it seems pretty clear to me that over the past six months (which includes data from the last 18 months) we have seen a significantly different trend than we saw between 2006 and 2009.

What do you think?  Still skeptical?

I have been waiting a long time to have tangible, factual, good news to share about a recovery of the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County housing market.  I think that time is coming, and here's why ---

April 2010 home sales increased 62% compared to April 2009!  (see graph below)




Long term home sales indicators continue to show stabilization and growth!  (see graph below)



Home buyers committed to buy homes in record numbers in March and April 2010!  (see graph below)



Learn more about our local housing market by clicking the image below to read my full market report.

Perhaps it was the tax credit.  Perhaps our local housing market is starting to recover.  Perhaps it is a bit of both!

In April 2010, an astounding 121 contracts were ratified on residential properties in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County.  This is the highest number of contracts in a single month since March 2007!

Despite the contract deadline having passed for the tax credit, I believe we will still continue to see strong sales as we move through the summer.

Less maintenance than a townhome, all of the amenities of Liberty Square (and more), one-level living, private entrances . . . . enjoy all of this and more in these 1,300 to 1,800 square foot new condos in Harrisonburg starting at $139,900, built by Scripture Communities.


Click here for more construction photos.

Despite snowy weather, construction is moving along quickly at Founders Way.  Below is a rendering of the finished product.



The first building of (12) condos will be complete in May 2010 or June 2010, thus making first time buyers for an $8,000 tax credit.  PLUS....the builder is offering a free granite upgrade for reservations prior to March 31, 2010.  PLUS....the builder is offering $3,000 of closing cost assistance.

Find out more at FoundersWay.com, call (540-578-0102) or e-mail me, or stop by the Liberty Square model on Fridays, Saturdays, Sundays or Mondays between 1:30 p.m. and 4:30 p.m.

Click here for Founders Way updates via Facebook

My web site allows you to perform many search functions if you're looking for homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, such as the New Listing Search, Quick Search, Community Search and Power Search.

Some time last year we added the ability to search in Shenandoah and Page Counties via the MRIS MLS System.  You can now also search all listings in the Greater Augusta Assocation of Realtors MLS using the same intuitive search functions on my web site!

To access this new data set, just use the "Now Searching" drop down in the upper right corner of my web site when you're in the searching section.



Happy Searching!

It is often helpful to put numbers in context.  Each month I publish a report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market, but today I thought I'd try to put those sorts of local numbers in the context of our neighboring markets.  The following data comes from the Virginia Association of Realtors 2009 year end market report. 

First, let's take a look at how we compared to our neighboring markets as to the number of home sales this past year (2009) compared to the prior year (2008).


As you can see, the sum total of Virginia showed a 2% increase in the number of home sales.  In comparison, Harrisonburg and Rockingham County aren't doing so well --- with a 13% decline in home sales.  In fact, the markets north, south and east of our market have all shown a stronger performance as measured by the number of home sales.

But what about home values, or median sales prices, you might ask . . . .



This is the area where Harrisonburg and Rockingham County has done well --- hmmmmm --- or at least we haven't done as poorly as our neighboring markets, and the state as a whole.  Our market saw a 4% decline in median sales price, in comparison to 9% for the state as a whole, a whopping 17% decline north of our market, and a 5% decline to the east.

This data is consistent with what I have been observing for the past several years --- home values are holding steadier in our market than in most areas, but home sales have been quite slow as a result.

Now, what shall we predict for 2010 and 2011??

The Daily News Record's take on our local housing market . . . .

Federal Tax Credit Boosts Home Sales (Jan 30, 2010)
Harrisonburg And Rockingham See Overall Buying Decline For The Year

By Jeff Mellott

HARRISONBURG - The looming expiration of a federal tax credit for first-time homebuyers in November is being credited for a doubling of Harrisonburg and Rockingham County home sales when compared to November 2008.

But while the news was good for those looking to sell before the original Nov. 30 deadline for buyers to qualify for an $8,000 tax credit, December was a return to more typical winter sales.

In the city and county, home sales increased from 42 in November 2008 to 83 in November 2009, according to the Virginia Association of Realtors. But the numbers dropped into the mid-60s for December.

The association also is crediting the buying incentive for boosting sales by 5.4 percent for the year in the Shenandoah Valley in 2009.

The Valley reporting region comprises Frederick, Clarke, Warren, Page, Shenandoah and Rockingham counties and the cities of Winchester and Harrisonburg.

The tax credit, which Congress has since extended, led to November being the third-highest sales month of 2009 for Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, said Scott Rogers, associate broker for Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors of Harrisonburg.

Typically, November is a slow month for home sales, Rogers said.

Along with the tax credit, he said, some buyers have been encouraged about the overall home-buying climate because the amount of bad economic news has seemingly diminished.

Decline

While the number of sales received a boost for November, the increase was not enough to change an overall decline in sales and median prices for the city and county in 2009, according to Rogers, who also operates the Web site HarrisonburgHousingtoday.com.

Rogers' analysis of the city and county real estate market showed the sale of 561 single-family homes in 2009, which was a 14 percent decline when compared to 654 homes in 2008.

The median sales price of a home declined from $215,000 in 2008 to $204,900, for a nearly 5 percent drop.

The latest figures were significantly below 2004 and 2005, when the number of single-family homes sold hovered at 1,025 before dropping off to 909 in 2006, according to the Web site.

The median sales price of a single-family home jumped from $170,000 in 2004 to $210,000 in 2005, for a 24 percent increase, according to the Web site.

Townhomes

Many of the first-time homebuyers in November who took advantage of the federal tax credit bought relatively less expensive townhouses in Harrisonburg, Rogers said.

Still, the overall sales and price of townhomes declined from 2008 to 2009, according to Rogers.

The 282 townhomes sold in 2008 dropped to 252 in 2009. The median sales price went down from $167,250 to $161,888 last year.

The numbers contrast sharply with 2005, the peak sales year of the decade. That year, 644 townhomes were sold but the median price was $134,950.

Statewide, fourth-quarter home sales for 2009 increased by 18 percent from 2008, according to an association statement Monday.

"There's no question that [the number of] first-time homebuyers had a significant increase," said Lisa Noon, Virginia Association of Realtors vice president Lisa Noon.

The tax credit deadline has been extended to the end of June, Rogers said.

To qualify, a homebuyer must have a home under contract by the end of April and close by the end of June, he said.

Nationally, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday that sales of new homes fell unexpectedly in December.

According to The Associated Press, last month's results were the weakest since March and were only 4 percent above the bottom last January. Many in the industry, however, expect sales to pick up as the April 30 deadline for the federal tax credit nears.

Contact Jeff Mellott at 574-6290 or jmellott@dnronline.com

In conversation today about our local housing market, I was asked how in the world Harrisonburg and Rockingham County home values have stayed relatively level over the past few years when many parts of the state and country are not. 

One key reason for the relative stability in our housing market is continued LOW UNEMPLOYMENT.  Thanks to Jim over at RealCentralVA, for pointing out the Washington Post's interactive unemployment map. 

As unemployment has increased in other parts of Virginia, and the United States, there have been many ripple effects that directly impact those local housing markets:

• people who lose their jobs can't buy houses
• people who lose their jobs often can't continue to pay for their houses
• people who think they might lose their jobs won't buy houses
• people who can't find jobs won't move into the area and buy houses

To focus in on Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, here are a few snapshots from the Washington Post's interactive unemployment map.


 
As seen above, all areas in Virginia and most in neighboring states experienced sub 7% unemployment rates in July 2007.
 

 
As shown above, quite a few areas in neighboring states, and a few in Virginia started to see unemployment creep up to the 7% - 10% range in July 2008.
 

 
OUCH!  The vast majority of states surrounding Virginia were above 7% or above 10% or even above 13% in 2009.  Most areas of Virginia outperformed these neighboring states --- and Haririsonburg and Rockingham County STILL experienced an unemployment rate below 7%.

Home sales finished out at a respectable level in 2009, showing only a 13% decline from 2008 as compared to the 25% decline in sales pace seen between 2007 and 2008.  The area's median price, however, slipped 5% -- the first decline in full year median values that we've seen in this troubled market.



This past month's sales (67 in December) can't be used to predict too much in our market, because December sales were at roughly the same levels in 2007 and 2008 --- with significantly different months and years following those similar December values.

That being said, five of twelve months in 2009 showed home sales at, above, or very close to the corresponding month in 2008.  This may be an indication that the declining pace of home sales seen since 2005 may finally be slowing.



The local year over year housing inventory has declined slightly, from 828 homes at the end of last December, to 792 homes for sale at the end of this December.  That small decline, however, is still not enough of a decline to help the significant oversupply of homes for sale we have been experiencing for over a year.



Read on, and dive into the details by reading the entire January 2010 Harrisonburg and Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report.  Click the image below to download the PDF.



If you find the information in this report to be helpful....

• Feel free to share it with your friends or colleagues.
• Let me know if you'd like to meet to discuss this report and/or the particulars of your real estate situation.
• Let me know if you would like to schedule a time for me to come speak to your company or an organization in which you are involved.
• If you'd like to re-publish all or part of this information on your web site or in an article, just let me know if you need any additional information or graphics.
• If you'd like to know even more about the housing market in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, click here to subscribe to HarrisonburgHousingToday by e-mail or by RSS.
• ThoughI spend a considerable amount of time analyzing our local housingmarket, the majority of my time is spent helping people like you buyand sell real estate.  If you (or someone you know) will be buying orselling real estate sometime in the near future, I'd be delighted tohave the opportunity to be of service.

Yesterday's Daily News Record featured an article on the short term rental situation at Massanutten Resort.  The latest update is that:



It has been an interesting four years (wow --- four years) that this debate has been going on, and it made me stop to think about the state of the Massanutten Resort housing market.  Below is a brief summary of changes in that market over the past four years, within the context of the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County housing market as a whole.



As can be seen above, Massanutten has seen a steady decline in the number of home sales taking place in each of the past four years.  That said, the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County market have seen a very similar decline.  The only deviation here is that the Massanutten market continued to decline rather significantly (35% drop) between 2008 and 2009 while the rate of decline slowed down somewhat in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County market as a whole (13% drop).



The graph above shows changes in the median sales price of homes in the Massanutten Resort market as compared to changes in median sales price for the market as a whole.  The difference is staggering!  Harrisonburg and Rockingham County have seen a median sales price decline of 3.4% over the past four years. During the same time period, Massanutten Resort has suffered a 16% decline in median sales price.

It's impossible to know how much of a correlation exists between the soft Massanutten Resort market and the short term rental issue, but I believe this issue has certainly played some role in the changes depicted above.


Also . . . enjoy the second edition of Harrisonburg Real Estate Radio:

Assessments via Harrisonburg Real Estate Radio  [11:55]


Other recent podcasts: Home Inspections

Inspired by 2009 in Harrisonburg over at hburgnews, below are the most popular HarrisonburgHousingToday.com stories in 2009 based on the number of views.

Quite a few of the top 10 were my monthly market reports.  I have excluded those from this list, as the May report (for example) won't necessarily be pertinent reading today.

JMU Student Housing Supply & Demand Analysis (Feb 28)
There are now a LOT more residences than students in Harrisonburg -- click here to read more about the increasing vacancy rates.

Understanding the Over-Supply of JMU Student Housing (Mar 1)
There were some clear reasons why all of these surplus residences were built -- click here to find out what led to this over supply.

How much can I negotiate off of a home's asking price? (Mar 16)
Very few homes sell for less than 90% of their asking price -- click here to find out more about what to expect in negotiations.

The real reasons why so much student housing is being built for JMU students... (Jun 23)
This was a hot topic in Harrisonburg this year -- click here for more discussion of the reasons why we came to have so much student housing.

Who Owns Harrisonburg (Oct 7)
This is a rather interesting look at whether Harrisonburg is owned by people living in Harrisonburg, or by out-of-towners.  Click here to see the break down.

Harrisonburg Has A Tremendous Over-Supply of Student Housing for JMU Students (Jul 6)
Hmmm....a trending topic?  Click here to read more about the students, the housing and the impact.

$8,000 Tax Credit Creates Huge Increase in Home Sales in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County (Apr 1)
If, after reading this post, you are scratching your head wondering what is going on, please read the comments, and check the date of the post.  Click here to read on.

The Most Popular Neighborhoods in Harrisonburg (Feb 25)
This analysis examines the subdivisions where the MOST home sales had taken place in 2008.  Click here to see these top buyer destinations.

Measuring Asking Prices By Assessed Values In The City of Harrisonburg (Sep 7)
Many buyers use assessed values as one indicator of the value of a home they are considering -- but does this make sense if the asking prices (or assessed values) are all over the map?  Click here to see the non-correlation.

Drive (virtually) through Harrisonburg online! (Mar 31)
Google sent their camera car through Harrisonburg and you can now view (on many main roads) a 360-degree of your surroundings on Google Maps.  Click here to see what it looks like, where it's available, and to see the Google car.

I am hopeful that 2010 will hold even more exciting real estate stories -- and certainly, there were many other fun stories in 2009 that didn't make this list.  Feel free to mention one of your favorites from 2009 in the comments below, or make a note of a story you'd like to see in 2010.

Thanks for reading, and Happy New Year!

Have you heard of American Builders Quarterly?  The publication provides a comprehensive look at the nation's entire construction industry by profiling leading companies that consistently perform in all aspects of the building trade.  Take a look at the covers of the last 15 issues (below) and you'll notice one company right here in Harrisonburg, Virginia that was recently highlighted by American Builders Quarterly: Scripture Communities.



This is rather big news, as this publication covers huge developments and developers all over the country --- but they took note (on the cover of the magazine, no less) of this local company that has been building communities in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County for several decades.



The article focused on Scripture Communities' emphasis on building lasting communities focused on market demands.  For years now, Jerry Scripture has been building unique, innovative communities to meet the specific needs and desires of home buyers in many different demographics. 

Communities currently being developed by Scripture Communities include:

• Heritage Estates: 55+ community with stunning French Country architecture, mountain and golf course views, and a community swimming pool.  Single family and paired homes, starting at $339k. www.HeritageEstates.us.
   
  
• The Cottages at Stone Spring:Energy-efficient "green homes" meticulously built to EarthCraft and/orEnergyStar standards.  Single family homes starting at $247k. www.TheCottagesAtStoneSpring.com.
   
  
• The Glen at Cross Keys: Spacious paired homes with high quality interior and exterior features and finishes, with a just released one-level floor plan.  Paired homes starting at $239k.  www.TheGlenAtCrossKeys.com. 
   
  
• Liberty Square: Two and three bedroom townhomes with City convenience, quality interior features many construction options, and several neighborhood amenities.  Townhomes starting at $149k.  www.LibertySquare.biz.
   
  
• Founders Way: One-level upscale condominiums with amenities such as a swimming pool, fitness center and jogging trail.  Construction has begun!  Condos starting at $149k.  www.FoundersWay.com.
  

If you have questions about any of these communities, please let me know (540-578-0102, scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com), as I represent Scripture Communities and can either answer your question, or identify someone who can.

ALSO --- STOP THE PRESS!
Don't forget about the Scripture Community Move Up Program, where Scripture Communities will potentially buy your house if you love one of their new communities and want to move up into a new home. 

The U.S. Department of Housing & Urban Development approved  (some time ago) two updated forms that are CENTRAL to the real estate transaction.  These two new forms will go into effect on January 1, 2010:

• Good Faith Estimate (pdf)
• HUD-1 Settlement Statement (pdf)

The new forms (and accompanying rules) are intended to help home buyers (who are obtaining mortgages) to better understand and compare their mortgage options.  In theory, this will allow them to obtain better loan terms, lower interest rates, and lower settlement charges (closing costs).

The new Good Faith Estimate (GFE) is now a standard form across all lenders.  In the past a borrower would receive a GFE with a different format from each lender that they visited --- each having a slightly different set of disclosed loan terms, or vocabulary for referencing such terms.  Now, a buyer can compare two proposed mortgage scenarios from two different lenders and be able to quickly and easily compare the exact same terms from each.  I see this as a huge improvement for the financing process (for buyers), as in the past there has often been much confusion about how to determine which proposed loan program is better than the other.

Here is an excerpt from Page 1 of the new Good Faith Estimate, which (surprisingly?) is quite intelligible!



But there's more!  Beyond a buyer's (borrower's) loan terms and closing costs being easier to comparison shop, and easier to understand . . . there is also more accountability on the lender to make sure that those terms and costs stay intact through to closing.

Some of the costs CANNOT change from the Good Faith Estimate, others can only change by a certain percentage, and others that can change without limit.  This is a big improvement from current HUD guidelines whereby there was no guarantee that any of the closing costs or loan terms from a Good Faith Estimate would be carried through to closing.

If you're buying in 2010, or beyond, you'll have the benefit of these new lending guidelines.  Feel free to ask questions as you go through the process (of me, or of your lender) -- but hopefully the process will be much clearer and easy for you to navigate!

Take a look at home sales activity summarized by Quarter . . .



As you may notice, we've seen a steady decline in the number of residential sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County since 2005 . . . until the fourth quarter of 2009.  Look again . . .



Please note, first, that the final fourth quarter 2009 sales figure is extrapolated based on data available as of November 30, 2009.  So, my data could be wrong --- but I recently made some wild guesses about November 2009 sales (first I guessed 65, then I guessed 76) and they were both too low (the final figure was 82)!

If we do see an year to year increase when comparing 2008-Q4 versus 2009-Q4, I think we can get excited about 2010 being the year when home sales finally started increasing again in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County.  That being said, I will still allow for skeptics to blame it on the tax credit, or for other factors in the current market.  Any skeptics out there?