The November 2008 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report is now available. Click here for a printable PDF of this report.



November 2008 sales (40) show a drastic drop (-63%) compared to a (higher than normal) month of sales in November 2007 (108). However, even with a slower sales pace, year to date average sales prices and median sales prices are holding relatively steady.



The pace of home sales has steadily declined since August 2008. November 2008 sales (40) were especially low compared to a surprisingly strong November 2007 (108 sales). A decline at this time of year is not atypical, but a 40-sale month is the lowest sales figure we have seen in six years. December has showed an increase over November in four of the past five years, so we may yet see an influx in buyers this year.



This graph shows a normalized trend of home sales by charting the ongoing sum of the preceding 12 months' sales. Despite an increase in sales pace for October 2008, this month we again see a continued decrease in this long-term sales trend.



Inventory levels have dropped to February 2008 levels, which will likely help the health of our local market. We have seen an oversupply of properties for sale for many months, and a decrease in supply (even amidst a decrease in sales pace) is a good sign.



Supply levels across most price ranges have stayed steady this month, except in the $400k+ price range. Six months of supply is often seen as a healthy balance between a seller's and buyer's market, so we still have some adjustments before we reach such a balance.

The October 2008 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report is now available. Click here for a printable PDF of this report.



Sales continue to be slow compared to last year, but overall prices continue to slowly and steadily increase.  Both the median and average sales price increased when comparing January through October of last year versus this year.



After a strong September (compared to last September), October's sales figures are lower than expected.  October's sales (62) were 40% lower than last October's sales (103).  Perhaps last year's fall months (October & November) were an anomaly with their strong increase.



This graph shows a normalized trend of home sales by charting the ongoing sum of the preceding 12 months' sales.  Despite an increase in sales pace last month (October 2008), this month we again see a continued decrease in this long-term sales trend.



Inventory continues to decline in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County --- this month down to 866 active single family, townhome and condo listings.  This is a 9% decrease compared to June 2008's inventory level of 956 active properties.



As inventory continues to decline, likewise the number of months of housing that is on the market has also declined.  The top two price ranges ($300k-$400k, $400k+) both are headed back down towards (somewhat) healthier supply levels.

The September 2008 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report is now available. Click here for a printable PDF of this report.



When comparing September 2008 to September 2007, both median and average sales prices show declines, of 3.85%, and 4.96% respectively.  However, when comparing Jan-Sept 2008 to Jan-Sept 2008, the median sales price still shows an increase of 1.03%.



Each year for the past six years, September sales have been slower than in August, and 2008 was no different.  However, September 2008 sales were stronger than September 2007, which, combined with the typical increase in October sales, make this a good trend to watch.



This graph shows a normalized trend of home sales by charting the ongoing sum of the preceding 12 months' sales.  Pay close attention this trend next month, as the September 2008 sales trend figure (Oct 1 ‘07 - Sept 30 ‘08) shows an increase in sales.



For quite some time, we have seen an elevated level of inventory -- thus, it is healthy to see  a decrease in inventory levels.  Yet, we may also be observing a seasonal trend in inventory that we will see continue through the winter.



Inventory has declined since August, and likewise, the number of months of housing that is on the market has also declined.  The sub-$200k supply has remained stable for several months, but the price range with the most extreme over-supply ($400k+) has declined.

Click on any of the charts or graphs below for a printable PDF of the August 2008 Real Estate Market Report for Harrisonburg & Rockingham County. 

Perhaps of most interest is that buyers are committing to buy properties at an almost equivalent rate as they were last year.  Last August, 77 properties went under contract, and this August 76 properties went under contract.  This seems to indicate that either we will see closed transactions pick up as the year continues, or that fewer buyers are able to get from contract to closing on a property.



We are in a buyers market.  In many markets around the country, which are also in buyers markets, prices have declined significantly over the past 18-24 months.  However, we continue to see average and median sales prices staying relatively level.  Both average and median sales prices increased (by less than 1%) when comparing Jan-Aug 2007 to Jan-Aug 2008.



Home sales continue to be largely seasonably predictable.  Sales increased in August (as compared to July) as they have in most previous years.  September, October and November will be interesting months to observe, as last year October and November showed a modest increase in sales activity.



Housing supply is holding steady, or increasing slightly in all price ranges.  The lowest price range ($0-$200k) continues to have the healthiest relationship between buyers and sellers, with the most expensive price range being the most out of balance.

If you are interested in a more specific analysis of a particular segment of the Harrisonburg or Rockingham County real estate market, please call (540-578-0102) or e-mail me.