Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group
Harrisonburg Housing Market
 A service of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group 540.578.0102 | scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com 

June 2016 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report
June 10, 2016
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Sales activity was STRONG again May 2016 -- with 128 closed sales, as compared to between 103 and 110 sales in the most recent months of May. This strong month of sales is after several previous months of strong sales -- leading to a 14.8% year-over-year increase in home sales when comparing the first five months of 2016 with the first five months of 2015. Despite growing sales figures, the median sales price has actually remain flat at $189,000 YTD, however the time it takes to sell a home (median days on market) has dropped 16% to 64 days.
Home sales have increased more in the City (+26%) than in the County (+10%) when looking at the first five months of the year -- and prices are following a somewhat similar trend with a 6% increase in City and a small (-2%) decrease in the County. Homes in the City are also selling much faster in the City (median of 41 days) as compared to the County (median of 73 days). While the majority of home buyers purchase in the County (296 vs. 154 so far this year), as stated, we are seeing the number of buyers in the City increase more quickly than that pace is changing in the County.
The graph above shows the month-by-month breakdown of home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County with a red line for 2016 and a blue line for 2015. As you can see, the 128 home sales seen in May 2016 is the highest month of May home sales that we have seen in any recent month of May. Last year, home sales shot up even further in June, to a peak of 134 home sales -- we will have to wait and see if we can match (or beat) that peak level this year, but this chart shows the many strong single months of home sales (January, March, May) that have contributed to an overall 15% increase in YTD home sales.
This colorful graph offers another way to look at the overall sales trends for the past few years in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County housing market. As is evident, there were more home sales in 2015 than in any other year in the prior four years. The largest year-over-year recovery seems to have occured between 2012 and 2013 -- but we also saw a larger increase in home sales last year (2014 to 2015) than we saw the previous year (2013 to 2014). The total of 1,125 home sales seen in 2015 is a high bar that I hope our market will be able to reach and potentially exceed in 2016. Thus far, with 450 sales, 2016 is likely to set new records!
This graph shows a rolling 12 months of the number of home sales in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County area, as well as the median price of the homes that sold during these time frames. Each data point shows one year’s worth of home sales, which eliminates the volatility of evaluating sales figures on a monthly basis. Over the past 24 months we have seen relatively consistent increases in the annual pace of home sales, which has now risen to 1,183 sales/year. And after many years of median sales prices hovering between $173K and $175K, we have seen steady increases over the past 20 months up to their current level of $185,000.
This graph provides an overall indicator of the state of our housing market, showing both the number of homes being sold each year since 2000 (yellow bars) as well as changes in the median sales price during the same time period (blue line). This past year (2015) marks the fifth (!) year in a row when we have seen an increase (+3%) in the pace of sales in our local market, which was also accompanied by a 4% increase in the median sales price. We have now seen increases in the median sales price for four years in a row, though they were small (+1%, +2%, +2%) increases up until 2015 when we saw a 4% increase in the median sales price.
The single family home market in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County told two two different stories last year (2015), depending on whether we were evaluating the price or pace of home sales. This past year (2015) marked the third year in a row with between 810 and 820 home sales -- so, virtually no change in the pace of home sales. Over the past year, however, the median sales price of single family homes increased by 5% to $200,000 -- which is the first time we have seen a $200K or higher median sales price since 2005-2009. It is encouraging that sales prices are increasing even without substantial increases in the number of home sales.
After six years (2005-2011) of rapid declines in the pace of townhouse sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, the pace of sales has been rebounding since 2012. The 304 sales seen in 2015 marked the highest level of sales seen anytime between 2008 and 2015. Despite the continuing increase in the sale of townhouses (and duplexes and condominiums) we did not see any further market recovery in 2015 when it comes to price. The median sales price of these properties was again $151,750 -- the exact same median sales price we saw in 2014. It will be important to watch these trends in 2016 as the median sales price is declining thus far in 2016.
We have (nearly) arrived! It is happening! Most housing market analysts consider six months of inventory (active listings) to be an indicator of a balanced market (between buyers and sellers). The “BUYERS” trend line above is illustrating how many buyers are buying in a six month period. The “SELLERS” trend line above is illustrating how many sellers are in the market (active listings) at any given time. Over the past four years we have seen a steady increase in buyers in the market and a declining number of sellers in the market. We are now close, oh so close, to seeing these two trajectories meet or cross.
In addition to monitoring home values by overall median sales prices in our market, it can be insightful to examine the median price per square foot of homes that are selling. The graph above shows the median price per square foot of all single family homes sold over the past 10+ years. The value trend captured by this graph is quite similar to the trend shown in the single family home median sales price during the same time, which validates that assumed set of changes in home values. Over the past year (2014 to 2015) we have seen increases in both the median sales price as well as the median price per square foot of single family homes.
Price per square foot of single family homes certainly varies for many reasons, including the age, location, lot size and structural characteristics of each home sold. However, there are some similarities in homes of a similar size. In looking at 2015 figures, this graph illustrates that the median price per square foot of larger homes (2500+ SF) is a good bit lower ($106/SF) than that of homes with less than 1500 SF ($124/SF). These values cannot be used as an absolute standard against which the value of any home can be measured, but they can provide some helpful guidance when trying to determine the value of a home.
This graph shows the average list price to sales price ratio (red line) over the past 15 years as compared to the overall pace of home sales. At the peak of the housing boom (2004-2006) sellers were able to obtain a median of 99% of their asking price --- up from a median of 97.7% in 2001 before the pace of home sales started escalating. Of note, last year we almost returned to that pre-boom level -- given the 97% average during 2015 compared to the 97% - 98% average in 2000 - 2002. As the market continues to recover, we may see this ratio increase a bit more.
New home builders experienced a slight increase in the pace of new home sales between 2010 and 2012 -- after steady declines since 2005. These increases (41 to 45 to 51) in sales pace, however, still leave plenty of room for improvement. The number of new (single family) home sales declined again in 2013 to 47 sales, and declined again in 2014 to 38 sales, but finally bounced back up to 54 sales last year -- the highest number seen since pre-2010. The median price per square foot has risen steadily over the past two years to its current level of $140/SF. The 32 sales seen in the first five months of 2016 are an indication of a strong year to come.
Wow! This graph shows very clearly (look at the last three bars on the right) how HOT of a Spring real estate market we have experienced this year. The pace of contracts in March and April hit record highs for those months -- and the pace of contracts in May (141) is nearly as high as we have ever seen in May. Year to date figures are even more impressive -- last year there were 515 contracts in the first five months of the year. This year there have been 590 contracts during the same timeframe, which marks a 14.5% improvement in the pace of contracts. This strong buyer activity will ultimately lead to more strong months of closed summer sales.
Overall sales activity is the combined effect of many would-be home buyers deciding to make an offer on a particular home -- and those decisions are not typically taken lightly. In contrast, changes in inventory levels are the combined effect of many homeowners deciding to list their home for sale -- which may be a big, significant, weighty decision, but it is not always so. Some homes that are on the market have been listed for sale by sellers who are “testing the market” and as a result, inventory levels can shift more quickly than home sales trends. Inventory levels have been mostly stable over the past year, though are currently down 12% year-over-year.
This graph examines the differences in inventory levels over time when examining only single family homes as compared to attached dwellings (townhouses, duplexes, condos). The number of single family homes for sale has decreased slowly (-8%) over the past year while the number of townhouses, duplexes and condos for sale has declined much more significantly (-21%) during that same time period. As is evident, inventory levels are much lower in the Winter market, and we are likely to see inventory levels continue to rise over the next few months -- though we have mostly only seen that in the single family home market thus far in 2016.
Trends in inventory level currently seem to, in many ways, transcend the City / County divide, but when looking only at inventory levels in the City, we see that there has been a relatively sizable decline (-25%) over the last year in the number of properties for sale, while in the County, there has been a much smaller (-6%) decline in the number of homes for sale. Despite relatively modest changes in inventory levels in the City of Harrisonburg and Rockingham County over the past year, inventory levels in the County seem much more turbulent than in the City.
Despite high inventory levels, and low numbers of buyers in the market, the homes that are actually selling are selling rather quickly. In fact, over 1 out of 3 homes (37%) that sell go under contract less than 30 days after being listed for sale. Include with that those that go under contract in the next 30 days (16%) and we find that more than half of homes (53%) that sell go under contract within the first 60 days of first coming on the market. This is not, however accounting for the many homes that never sell -- that linger on the market, or are eventually taken off the market.
The pace of home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County varies significantly based on price range. The graph above shows the average number of home sales per month (given a 12-month average) as we have passed through the past two years. Home sales have increased in all price ranges over the past year, except for in the $300K - $400K price range, where we have seen a 21% decline in home sales. The most significant increases seen over the past 12 months have been in the $200K - $300K price range (+19%) and the $400K+ price range (+9%).
Inventory levels shift up and down seasonally, but we are also seeing differences in year-over-year trajectories in each of the four price ranges outlined above. The mid-level price range ($200K - $300K) has seen the largest upward adjustment (+7%) in inventory levels over the past year -- while the lowest price range (under $200K) has seen the largest decline (-23%) in the number of homes for sale, followed close by the $300K-$400K market which has seen a 22% decline. All four price ranges are likely to see some further increases in inventory levels over the next few months.
With so many homes on the market (lots of sellers) and so few home sales (not so many buyers), there are very high levels of supply in most price ranges our local real estate market. The graph above illustrates that it would take 14 months to sell all of the homes currently for sale over $400K if the same number of buyers bought each month as have been buying (on average) over the past 12 months. Many consider a six month supply to be a balance between buyers and sellers, and in the past 12 months we have only consistently seen that balance in the under $200K price range, where we are now seeing only a four month supply of homes for sale!
After some modest recovery in the pace of sales of lots of less than an acre over the past few years, there were fewer of these sales in 2015 (78) as compared to 2014 (84). That slower pace of lot sales did not stop sellers from being able to obtain higher prices for their building lots, as the median sales price increased from $53,950 to $59,650. This is nearly tied for the highest median sales price seen anytime since 2008. While we are unlikely to return to seeing 250 or more lot sales in a single year, hopefully we will see increases 100+ sales per year in the coming years. Of note, the pace of these sales thus far this year is not looking promising.
Despite the fact that only 78 lots (of less than an acre) sold in all of 2015, there are a remarkable 147 lots currently for sale. Some sanity exists in this listing market, however, as the median list price of lots for sale ($54,900) is actually a bit lower than the 2015 median sales price of $59,650. Given last year’s 78 lot sales, if no other lots were listed for sale, it would take 1.9 years to sell all of the lots currently listed for sale. As you can see above, a significant portion of the lots currently listed for sale are priced above $60,000 --- thus many sellers have offering prices higher than recent (2011-2015) median sales prices.
Parcels of land larger than one acre in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County peaked in 2013 at 70 sales, declined in 2014 to only 58 sales, but popped back up to 66 sales during 2015. The median price per acre of these lots with over 1 acre also jumped back up in 2015 to $15,171. This is the highest price per acre for land of over one acre seen anytime in the past six years. At this point, we seem poised to see a similar (or slightly smaller) number of these sales in 2016, and median price per acre may drop back down again to the $10K - $12K range.
Despite the fact that only 66 parcels of land (of one acre or more) sold in all of 2015, there are a remarkable 193 parcels of land currently for sale. Furthermore, despite the fact that the median sales price of land is hovering around $15,000 per acre, the median list price of the 183 parcels for sale is currently $20,388 per acre. Given last year’s 66 land sales, if no other land is listed for sale, it would take 2.9 years to sell all of the parcels of land currently listed for sale. As you can see above, the vast majority of land listed for sale is listed at median prices per acre well above the median sales price per acre.
The graph above is a comparison of two imprecise measures -- but the comparison can still be helpful. The blue bars show the number of home sales recorded in the HRAR MLS -- this does not include private sales (without a Realtor), nor new home sales directly from a builder. The red bars show the number of Trustee Deeds. Some foreclosed properties then show up again as REO properties. The foreclosure rate in our local market area is definitely trending downward, as there were 4.6 times as many home sales as foreclosures during 2013, 6.7 times as many home sales as foreclosures in 2014, and 8.1 times as many in 2015.
As shown in the top graph above, home buyers have seen steadily (though slowly) declining mortgage interest rates over the past several years to current levels that are amongst the lowest we have ever seen. The second graph above illustrates trends in the local unemployment rate -- which has shown a general downward trend over the past several years, and dropped to its lowest level (3.2%) in April 2016 that we have seen in many years. A low local unemployment rate and low mortgage interest rates continue to help our local housing market remain stable.
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Have Questions?  Contact Scott P. Rogers at 540-578-0102 or scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com.